2nd Quarter 2022 Market Pulse Report

Posted by Kerri Whipple on Sunday, July 31st, 2022 at 11:02pm.

 
 

As the market adjusts and corrects for the enormous upswings that have occurred since the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic, the Wasatch Back market has started to experience some shifts. Available inventory is finally rising after a long period of extreme scarcity, and prices are beginning to level off. 

At the end of the second quarter of 2022, there were 545 single-family homes for sale, nearly triple the count from just six months earlier. With the increased inventory, buyers are feeling less pressure to make instant offers above asking price, and many sellers are responding by lowering prices. As buyers begin to take a more measured approach to home buying, the overall rate of sales is showing signs of slowing, with overall sales volume dropping 22% for single-family homes and rising 3% for condominiums. Despite this cooling off in overall sales volume, the average and median sale prices for single family homes still showed substantial increases of 15% and 11% respectively. These increases pale in comparison to the boom that we've experienced in the past two years - one of the most robust periods we've ever witnessed in our market. However, they still represent significant appreciation in home prices.

Moving forward, it is well worth keeping a close eye on how larger economic forces, such as mortgage rates, inflation, and stock market volatility continue to shape our local real estate market. I look forward to keeping you up to date in future newsletters, and in the meantime, hope you enjoy the following info on our 2nd Quarter market statistics. As always, if you have any follow-up questions please reach out!


Source: PCBOR Q2 2022 Quarterly Market Summary, 12 month rolling year over year for all property types across the PCMLS service areas in Summit and Wasatch Counties.
 

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12 Month Rolling: July 2021 - June 2022 | July 2020 - June 2021
 
AVG SALE PRICE UP 35%
$4,363,216
AVG SALE PRICE UP 13%
$1,854,376
AVG SALE PRICE UP 46%
$2,326,058
MED SALE PRICE UP 35%
$3,700,000
MED SALE PRICE UP 15%
$1,375,000
MED SALE PRICE UP 65%
$1,975,000
 
AVG SALE PRICE UP 21%
$3,024,771
AVG SALE PRICE UP 49%
$1,171,206
AVG SALE PRICE UP 33%
$1,396,917
MED SALE PRICE UP 22%
$2,132,500
MED SALE PRICE UP 63%
$985,000
MED SALE PRICE UP 69%
$1,100,000
 
AVG SALE PRICE UP 40%
$1,436,297
AVG SALE PRICE UP 24%
$585,640
AVG SALE PRICE UP 54%
$658,681
MED SALE PRICE UP 40%
$1,064,500
MED SALE PRICE UP 27%
$476,000
MED SALE PRICE UP 78%
$470,000
Not all sold data in the Heber Valley is included in the Park City Multiple Listing Service data; please call for more specific details. All data, information, and interpretation ©2022 Park City Multiple Listing Service, Inc


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In the 12 months from July 2021 to  June 2022, there were 2,970 purchase contracts executed, 36% fewer than the previous year. With new listings (3,103) running slightly higher than pending contracts (2,970), available inventory has started to increase. The 420 new single-family listings in June were the highest monthly tally since September 2020 and the second highest monthly tally in almost four years.
RESIDENTIAL LISTINGS SNAPSHOT
Single-Family Homes + Condominiums
 

Consider this: only 265 residential properties were active at the end of December 2021. That number was up to 317 at the end of March 2022 and boomed to 858 at the end of June 2022, an increase of 223% so far this year. This bodes well for buyers, who now have a greater selection and less time pressure.
 


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"It’s clear that over the past two years, the combination of the pandemic, record low mortgage rates, and the opportunity to work remotely spurred greater demand. Now, as the market adjusts to a higher rate environment, we are seeing a period of deflated sales activity until the market normalizes."

            
                     - FreddieMac.com  |  July 28, 2022



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The statistics below were drawn on a rolling year-over-year basis for the period ending June 30, 2022, unless otherwise noted.
 

For Single Family homes, the greater Park City market showed drops in the number of sold transactions through the second quarter of 2022 versus 2021. The number of closings dropped
33%, but an 11% rise in median prices kept the total sales volume to 22% below the year prior. 
 

HIGHLIGHTS   |  Stats by Neighborhood

  • Within Park City Limits, total transactions were down 55% over Q2-21 to 162 units, but sales volume declined just 40% from $1.17 billion last year to $706 million this year.
  • The median price of a single-family home across Park City rose 35% to $3.7 million.
  • In the popular Old Town area, transactions were down 68% (130 to 42), as the median price set a new record above $3.1 million.
  • The Prospector and Thaynes Canyon led all others for greatest increase in median price, with Thaynes up 50% to $4.4 million and Prospector up 122% to $2.61 million.
  • Snyderville residents saw a decrease in sales volume (down 23%) despite a strong increase in the overall median price, up 22% to $2.13 million. Almost all the Snyderville neighborhoods saw declines in closed transactions, with Sun Peak/Bear Hollow area dropping (72%) to 10 sales. Summit Park had the biggest gain - up 20% with 42 homes sold.
  • Nearly one-third of overall sales volume was in Promontory ($373 million), while Silver Creek Estates and Silver Springs areas saw the biggest price increases, with the median prices rising 74% and 64% respectively. The median sale price in Old Ranch Road rose to $6.5 million, second highest in the region behind Canyons Village ($9.8 million).
  • The hotspots south and east of the metro area around the Heber and Kamas valleys showed substantial median price increases of 40% and 48%, respectively.
 
 
Condominium sales prices were strong across the entire market. Within the Park City Limits and in the Heber and Kamas Valleys, total sales volume declined, primarily due to a lack of inventory. 


HIGHLIGHTS  |  Stats by Neighborhood
  • Condominium sales volume in Park City Limits was down 23%. Median sale price rose 15%. 
  • Old Town continued to be solid. Total transactions were down slightly (11%), sales volume increased 36%, and median price rose 42% to $1 million.
  • Park Meadows and Prospector were the standout neighborhood performers, with sales volume up 11% and 9% respectively. The median price of a condominium in Prospector was up 84% to $411,000.
  • Lower Deer Valley and Aerie showed strong appreciation, with median price gains of 42%+.
  • In the Snyderville Basin, total sales volume climbed 42%, and average and median prices both rose 50% or more. Kimball and Silver Creek South led in sales volume increases (19% and 27% respectively), while other Snyderville neighborhoods saw sales decline due to lack of inventory.
  • In Wasatch County, (areas with 10 or more sales are reported),  Jordanelle Park doubled its sales volume over the prior year, and median price was up 58% to $970,000.
 
 
After explosive growth in 2021, land sales declined across the region, with every major area showing drops in the total number of transactions. Total sales volume remained steady or dropped in all areas except Jordanelle, where sales volume was up 70% on prices that more than doubled from the year prior. 


HIGHLIGHTS  |  Stats by Neighborhood
  • Jordanelle showed the most activity, with 390 lots sold this past year. Those lots sold for nearly twice the price of lots in the year ending 6/30/21. The median sale price was $800,000, up from $397,000 the year prior.
  • Overall land sales in Summit and Wasatch counties were down 35% while median sales price for land region wide were up 74% to $704,000.
  • All the major areas of the market saw a drop in transactions. Snyderville and Wanship/Hoytsville were hit the hardest, dropping by half from the previous year’s total.
  • Only 34 lots sold within the Park City Limits, but the lack of available lots coupled with high demand pushed the median sale price to $1.97 million, up 65% from the year before.



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If you are contemplating selling your property, it is vitally important to review comparable sales data and come to market in the best possible condition - professional staging, curb appeal, quality of photography, and ease of showing are all critical to success in this shifting market. While the data suggests we are still considered a seller's market, that is likely to change during the 3rd quarter. Buyers are aware of the changes in the marketplace and will expect significant repairs to be made if needed.  

The data below weighs the time on market against the median price. With days on market ticking upward, coming to market fully prepared is now a must for sellers.  
 
Absorption Rate: the number of months it would take to sell the
currently listed properties on the market factoring in median list price. 
The stats below compare year over year averages for 


July 2020 - June 2021  VS.  July 2021 - June 2022
 
PARK CITY LIMITS                           
(Areas 1-9) Includes  Old Town, Thaynes Canyon, Lower Deer Valley Resort, Deer Crest, Upper Deer Valley Resort, Empire Pass, Aerie, Prospector, and Park Meadows.
AS OF JULY 2022

MEDIAN HOME PRICE
$3,700,000
 
ABSORPTION RATE
if home was listed at median price
2.9 months
 
MEDIAN HOME PRICE
$1,375,000
 
ABSORPTION RATE
if home was listed at median price
1.8 months
 
SNYDERVILLE BASIN & JORDANELLE
(Areas 10-28) Includes The Canyons, Sun Peak/Bear Hollow, Silver Springs, Old Ranch Road, Kimball, Pinebrook, 
Summit Park, Jeremy Ranch, Glenwild/Silver Creek, Trailside Park, Promontory, Quinn's Junction, Deer Mountain, Tuhaye/Hideout,  Jordanelle, and South Jordanelle.
AS OF JULY 2022

MEDIAN HOME PRICE
$2,100,000
 
ABSORPTION RATE
if home was listed at median price
2.9 months
 
MEDIAN HOME PRICE
$948,831
 
ABSORPTION RATE
if home was listed at median price
2.7 months
 
 HEBER VALLEY                                   AS OF JULY 2022
MEDIAN HOME PRICE
$1,064,500
 
ABSORPTION RATE
if home was listed at median price
   3.2 months



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Data for All States


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HOW LONG CAN THIS CONTINUE?


How long can Park City homeowners expect this explosive market to continue? We are starting to see some easing in prices as mortgage rates rise and competitive bidding becomes less frequent. But the past two years continue to be described with the most superlative of adjectives: “extraordinary,” “unprecedented,” “unbelievable.” This market, and the past two years of activity, can perhaps be best illustrated with a snapshot of just second quarter sales totals since the 2008 recession. 

From 2005 to 2020, looking at 2nd Quarter sales, the total sales volume in our market exceeded $500 million only two times, and that was in the run-up to the great market crash of 2008. In 2021 and 2022, not only was that ceiling shattered, sales volume was over $700 million two years ago. 

Economic forecasts are predicting a continuing economic slowdown, but none has projected a bubble bursting crash such as we experienced in 2008.

What are the key take-aways from this quarter's numbers?

  • Inventory is finally improving. Inventory is up 173% since the beginning of the year. 
  • Demand is slowing. Q2-2022 sales are down 29% from Q2-2021. Condominium sales are down 22%; Single Family down 21%; Vacant Land down 73%
  • Appreciation continues. For all of greater Park City, median prices rose 35%. Excluding vacant land, median prices rose a more sustainable 13%.
Keep in mind that despite the recent shifts in our market, there are always opportunities for both buyers and sellers who remain responsive to the latest conditions. As usual, we look forward to keeping you posted on the latest market news, and in the meantime we are always here to assist with any questions you may have. Hope to hear from you soon!
 


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