As the market adjusts and corrects for the enormous upswings that have occurred since the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic, the Wasatch Back market has started to experience some shifts. Available inventory is finally rising after a long period of extreme scarcity, and prices are beginning to level off.
At the end of the second quarter of 2022, there were 545 single-family homes for sale, nearly triple the count from just six months earlier. With the increased inventory, buyers are feeling less pressure to make instant offers above asking price, and many sellers are responding by lowering prices. As buyers begin to take a more measured approach to home buying, the overall rate of sales is showing signs of slowing, with overall sales volume dropping 22% for single-family homes and rising 3% for condominiums. Despite this cooling off in overall sales volume, the average and median sale prices for single family homes still showed substantial increases of 15% and 11% respectively. These increases pale in comparison to the boom that we've experienced in the past two years - one of the most robust periods we've ever witnessed in our market. However, they still represent significant appreciation in home prices.
Moving forward, it is well worth keeping a close eye on how larger economic forces, such as mortgage rates, inflation, and stock market volatility continue to shape our local real estate market. I look forward to keeping you up to date in future newsletters, and in the meantime, hope you enjoy the following info on our 2nd Quarter market statistics. As always, if you have any follow-up questions please reach out!
Source: PCBOR Q2 2022 Quarterly Market Summary, 12 month rolling year over year for all property types across the PCMLS service areas in Summit and Wasatch Counties.
In the 12 months from July 2021 to June 2022, there were 2,970 purchase contracts executed, 36% fewer than the previous year. With new listings (3,103) running slightly higher than pending contracts (2,970), available inventory has started to increase. The 420 new single-family listings in June were the highest monthly tally since September 2020 and the second highest monthly tally in almost four years.
RESIDENTIAL LISTINGS SNAPSHOT Single-Family Homes + Condominiums
Consider this: only 265 residential properties were active at the end of December 2021. That number was up to 317 at the end of March 2022 and boomed to 858 at the end of June 2022, an increase of 223% so far this year. This bodes well for buyers, who now have a greater selection and less time pressure.
"It’s clear that over the past two years, the combination of the pandemic, record low mortgage rates, and the opportunity to work remotely spurred greater demand. Now, as the market adjusts to a higher rate environment, we are seeing a period of deflated sales activity until the market normalizes."
The statistics below were drawn on a rolling year-over-year basis for the period ending June 30, 2022, unless otherwise noted.
For Single Family homes, the greater Park City market showed drops in the number of sold transactions through the second quarter of 2022 versus 2021. The number of closings dropped 33%, but an 11% rise in median prices kept the total sales volume to 22% below the year prior.
WithinPark City Limits, total transactions were down 55% over Q2-21 to 162 units, but sales volume declined just 40% from $1.17 billion last year to $706 million this year.
The median price of a single-family home acrossPark Cityrose 35% to $3.7 million.
In the popularOld Townarea, transactions were down 68% (130 to 42), as the median price set a new record above $3.1 million.
The Prospector and Thaynes Canyon led all others for greatest increase in median price, withThaynesup 50% to $4.4 million andProspectorup 122% to $2.61 million.
Snydervilleresidents saw a decrease in sales volume (down 23%) despite a strong increase in the overall median price, up 22% to $2.13 million. Almost all the Snyderville neighborhoods saw declines in closed transactions, withSun Peak/Bear Hollowarea dropping (72%) to 10 sales.Summit Parkhad the biggest gain - up 20% with 42 homes sold.
Nearly one-third of overall sales volume was inPromontory($373 million), whileSilver Creek EstatesandSilver Springsareas saw the biggest price increases, with the median prices rising 74% and 64% respectively. The median sale price inOld Ranch Roadrose to $6.5 million, second highest in the region behindCanyons Village($9.8 million).
The hotspots south and east of the metro area around theHeberandKamasvalleys showed substantial median price increases of 40% and 48%, respectively.
Condominium sales prices were strong across the entire market. Within thePark City Limitsand in theHeberandKamasValleys, total sales volume declined, primarily due to a lack of inventory.
Condominium sales volume in Park City Limits was down 23%. Median sale price rose 15%.
Old Town continued to be solid. Total transactions were down slightly (11%), sales volume increased 36%, and median price rose 42% to $1 million.
Park MeadowsandProspectorwere the standout neighborhood performers, with sales volume up 11% and 9% respectively. The median price of a condominium inProspectorwas up 84% to $411,000.
Lower Deer ValleyandAerie showed strong appreciation, with median price gains of 42%+.
In theSnyderville Basin,total sales volume climbed 42%, and average and median prices both rose 50% or more. KimballandSilver Creek Southled in sales volume increases (19% and 27% respectively), while other Snyderville neighborhoods saw sales decline due to lack of inventory.
InWasatch County, (areas with 10 or more sales are reported), Jordanelle Parkdoubled its sales volume over the prior year, and median price was up 58% to $970,000.
After explosive growth in 2021, land sales declined across the region, with every major area showing drops in the total number of transactions. Total sales volume remained steady or dropped in all areas exceptJordanelle, where sales volume was up 70% on prices that more than doubled from the year prior.
Jordanelleshowed the most activity, with 390 lots sold this past year. Those lots sold for nearly twice the price of lots in the year ending 6/30/21. The median sale price was $800,000, up from $397,000 the year prior.
Overall land sales inSummitandWasatchcounties were down 35% while median sales price for land region wide were up 74% to $704,000.
All the major areas of the market saw a drop in transactions. SnydervilleandWanship/Hoytsvillewere hit the hardest, dropping by half from the previous year’s total.
Only 34 lots sold within thePark City Limits,but the lack of available lots coupled with high demand pushed the median sale price to $1.97 million, up 65% from the year before.
If you are contemplating selling your property, it is vitally important to review comparable sales data and come to market in the best possible condition - professional staging, curb appeal, quality of photography, and ease of showing are all critical to success in this shifting market. While the data suggests we are still considered a seller's market, that is likely to change during the 3rd quarter. Buyers are aware of the changes in the marketplace and will expect significant repairs to be made if needed.
The data below weighs the time on market against the median price. With days on market ticking upward, coming to market fully prepared is now a must for sellers.
Absorption Rate:the number of months it would take to sell the currently listed properties on the market factoring in median list price. The stats below compare year over year averages for
July 2020 - June 2021 VS. July 2021 - June 2022
PARK CITY LIMITS (Areas 1-9) Includes Old Town, Thaynes Canyon, Lower Deer Valley Resort, Deer Crest, Upper Deer Valley Resort, Empire Pass, Aerie, Prospector, and Park Meadows.
AS OF JULY 2022
MEDIAN HOME PRICE $3,700,000
ABSORPTION RATE if home was listed at median price 2.9 months
MEDIAN HOME PRICE $1,375,000
ABSORPTION RATE if home was listed at median price 1.8 months
SNYDERVILLE BASIN & JORDANELLE (Areas 10-28) Includes The Canyons, Sun Peak/Bear Hollow, Silver Springs, Old Ranch Road, Kimball, Pinebrook, Summit Park, Jeremy Ranch, Glenwild/Silver Creek, Trailside Park, Promontory, Quinn's Junction, Deer Mountain, Tuhaye/Hideout, Jordanelle, and South Jordanelle.
AS OF JULY 2022
MEDIAN HOME PRICE $2,100,000
ABSORPTION RATE if home was listed at median price 2.9 months
MEDIAN HOME PRICE $948,831
ABSORPTION RATE if home was listed at median price 2.7 months
HEBER VALLEY AS OF JULY 2022
MEDIAN HOME PRICE $1,064,500
ABSORPTION RATE if home was listed at median price 3.2 months
How long can Park City homeowners expect this explosive market to continue? We are starting to see some easing in prices as mortgage rates rise and competitive bidding becomes less frequent. But the past two years continue to be described with the most superlative of adjectives: “extraordinary,” “unprecedented,” “unbelievable.” This market, and the past two years of activity, can perhaps be best illustrated with a snapshot of just second quarter sales totals since the 2008 recession.
From 2005 to 2020, looking at 2nd Quarter sales, the total sales volume in our market exceeded $500 million only two times, and that was in the run-up to the great market crash of 2008. In 2021 and 2022, not only was that ceiling shattered, sales volume was over $700 million two years ago.
Economic forecasts are predicting a continuing economic slowdown, but none has projected a bubble bursting crash such as we experienced in 2008.
What are the key take-aways from this quarter's numbers?
Inventory is finally improving.Inventory is up 173% since the beginning of the year.
Demand is slowing.Q2-2022 sales are down 29% from Q2-2021. Condominium sales are down 22%; Single Family down 21%; Vacant Land down 73%
Appreciation continues.For all of greater Park City, median prices rose 35%. Excluding vacant land, median prices rose a more sustainable 13%.
Keep in mind that despite the recent shifts in our market, there are always opportunities for both buyers and sellers who remain responsive to the latest conditions. As usual, we look forward to keeping you posted on the latest market news, and in the meantime we are always here to assist with any questions you may have. Hope to hear from you soon!